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I can’t believe we are halfway through the NFL Season with Week 10 matchups! It is the seventh week of my NFL Gambling Stats Cheat Sheet and Best Bets. I am coming off a subpar 1-2 Week 9, bringing my Best Bet season record to 11-9 (55%). However, it is time to bounce back in Week 10.
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In this post, I highlight my four best bets for this weekend’s action: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders, Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals, and Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots.
Want to read all of my Week 10 matchup statistical research? Download the full NFL Gambling Stats Week 10 Cheat Sheet Printable PDF.
NFL Week 10 Matchups Stats and Best Bets
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Green Bay Packers
Packers Offense
The Green Bay Packers offense ranks in top 10 in key categories. As a result, they are #5 in yards per completion, and #9 in yards per rush attempt. In addition, the Packers are averaging 31.7 points per game this season. Furthermore, in the six wins this season the Packers have scored a minimum of 30 points. Lastly, Packers are #2 in points per play, #7 in red zone scoring percentage, and my favorite stat, #6 in yards per play.
Jaguars Defense
If there is an offense the Jacksonville Jaguars defense wants to avoid playing it is the Packers. Their key defensive metrics rank amongst the bottom in the entire league. Jaguars are giving up 31 points per game, rank #31 in opponent yards per completion and are giving up 280 yards passing per game. As a result, they are ranked #31 in yards per play allowed. Lastly, the Jaguars defense is allowing 34 points per game on the road this season.
Best Bet: Packers Team Total Over 33
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
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Raiders offense has been quietly humming along this season. In the key offensive stats, they are average. However, the Raiders are averaging 27.2 points per game this season, which ranks #11 in the league. Furthermore, Raiders rush for 131.2 yards per game ranking #9. Raiders have made it an effort to establish the running game and build the passing game off that. Broncos defense has fallen off recently. Broncos are allowing 36 points per game in their last three games.
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
The last five games for the Broncos have resulted in going Over the total. Those games are averaging 55 points combined. In the last three games Drew Lock is averaging 43 pass attempts per game. Furthermore, Lock is averaging 272 passing yards over the last three games. Raiders defense ranks #29 in opponent yards per completion and #22 in opponent yards per rush attempt. Broncos offense should continue to find success against the Raiders secondary in this divisional matchup Sunday.
Best Bet: Broncos/Raiders Over 51
Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals
Offenses
Both teams rank in the top 10 in yards per play. Bills rank #9, and Cardinals rank #4. Additionally, Bills and Cardinals are averaging a combined 30 points per game in the first half. Furthermore, both defenses are allowing a combined 23.5 points in the first half. This will be another game where both teams will have success off the play action resulting in deep throws down the field. The receiver talent both teams possess will translate to a fast start and lots of points.
Best Bet: Bills/Cardinals 1st Half Over 26.5
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots
Ravens Rushing Offense vs Patriots Rushing Defense
There is no doubt the Baltimore Ravens pride themselves on running the ball. The matchup this week against the Patriots run defense will have the Ravens licking their chops. Patriots allow 131 rushing yards per game and are #18 in opponent rush yards per attempt. Furthermore, Ravens are averaging 170 rushing yards per game which is best in the league. Patriots rank #26 in opponent rushing first downs per game. Lastly, Patriots defense allows 12.4 yards per completion and rank #29 in yards per play allowed. Lamar Jackson has not had a game in which he has thrown for more than 215 yards since Week 2. Ravens passing game should also have success based off the porous defensive stats of the Patriots.
Best Bet: Ravens -7
Want to read all of my Week 10 matchup statistical research? Download the full NFL Gambling Stats Week 10 Cheat Sheet Printable PDF.
